The world economy, measured
A working model of global output and wealth. It measures what every major economy and continent actually did, diagnoses how far each balance sheet has drifted from its own long-run relationship with GDP, and projects four forward pathways to 2035.
Where output is
Nominal GDP by continent. The shaded band from 2026 is IMF projection, not outturn.
How much each continent actually grew
Real GDP in constant 2025 US$, rebased to 2000 = 100. Strips out inflation and currency moves.
Who gained and lost the world
Change in share of world output (PPP), 2000 → 2025
The major economies
Ranked by nominal GDP, 2025. Imbalance is this model's composite of equity, credit, government debt and broad money against each economy's own 2000–24 norm.
| Economy | GDP | Share | Real growth 10y | Real growth since 2000 | Gov debt | Balance sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $30.8tn | 26.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 124% | +1.54σ stretched |
| China | $19.6tn | 16.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 99% | +1.81σ stretched |
| Germany | $5.0tn | 4.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 63% | -0.07σ balanced |
| Japan | $4.4tn | 3.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 207% | +1.44σ elevated |
| United Kingdom | $4.0tn | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 102% | -0.27σ balanced |
| India | $3.9tn | 3.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 84% | +2.16σ stretched |
| France | $3.4tn | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 116% | +0.83σ elevated |
| Russia | $2.6tn | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 17% | +0.39σ balanced |
| Italy | $2.6tn | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 137% | -0.47σ balanced |
| Canada | $2.3tn | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 114% | +1.53σ stretched |
| Brazil | $2.3tn | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 93% | +1.01σ elevated |
| Spain | $1.9tn | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 100% | -0.29σ balanced |
| South Korea | $1.9tn | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 52% | +1.98σ stretched |
| Australia | $1.8tn | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 51% | +0.89σ elevated |
Four ways this resolves
An elevated balance sheet unwinds through productivity, through inflation, or through correction — or it stays elevated and defers the reckoning.
High investment and technology adoption expand productive capacity. The balance sheet shrinks relative to GDP because the real economy grows into it.
Real wealth grows; balance-sheet risk declines.
High demand drives nominal growth while supply constraints hold back real growth. The balance sheet shrinks relative to GDP through the price level rather than through output.
Nominal gains but real losses; the real value of debt falls.
Weak investment and a savings glut resume. The balance sheet keeps rising relative to GDP — the correction is deferred, not avoided.
Wealth keeps rising on paper while real output stays sluggish.
Asset prices correct and deleveraging begins. Demand reverses sharply and ripples through the economy — a lost decade of growth.
Absolute loss of wealth through asset-price correction.