Model-Global

Balance sheet

Growth tells you how fast an economy moved. The balance sheet tells you whether it can hold. Each stock — equity, private credit, government debt, broad money — is measured as a share of GDP and judged against that economy’s own 20002024 norm. When assets outrun the economy underneath them, the gap eventually closes: through productivity, through inflation, or through a correction.

Growth against imbalance

Ten-year real growth on the vertical, composite balance-sheet imbalance on the horizontal. 32 largest economies; bubble area is nominal GDP.

Top right — stretched, but growing into itBottom right — stretched and not growing: where corrections come fromLeft — balance sheet at or below its own norm

Bubble area is nominal GDP. Only the largest economies and the focused one are labelled; hover any point for the rest.

Imbalance is a GDP-weighted composite of four stocks, each expressed in standard deviations of its own 2000–24 history. Economies lacking coverage on half the stocks are omitted.

United States in detail

Composite imbalance
+1.54σ
stretched vs its own 2000–2024 norm
Real growth, 10y
2.4%a year
2.1% since 2000
Investment rate
21.5%
+0.2pp vs its 2000–2024 average
Government debt
124%of GDP
-6.8% fiscal balance

Where the gap is

Each stock against United States's own 2000–2024 average.

Equity valuation
224% of GDP · avg 142%
+2.56σ
Private credit
201% of GDP · avg 187%
+1.03σ
Government debt
124% of GDP · avg 94%
+1.22σ
Broad money
100% of GDP · avg 87%
+1.04σ
σ is standard deviations of that stock's own history — it makes stocks with very different scales comparable.

How it got here

Each stock as a share of GDP, 1990 onward.

Equity valuationPrivate creditGovernment debtBroad money
Sources: World Bank WDI (equity, credit, broad money); IMF WEO (government debt).

Every major economy, ranked

Composite imbalance at 2025, most stretched first.

EconomyEquityCreditGov debtMoneyComposite
India+5.39σ+0.29σ+0.98σ+1.12σ+2.16σ
South Korea+2.86σ+1.47σ+1.76σ+1.56σ+1.98σ
China+0.99σ+1.95σ+2.66σ+1.81σ+1.81σ
United States● focused+2.56σ+1.03σ+1.22σ+1.04σ+1.54σ
Canada+3.40σ+0.47σ+1.89σ-0.42σ+1.53σ
Japan+2.65σ+1.25σ+0.72σ+0.76σ+1.44σ
Mexico+0.06σ+1.20σ+2.07σ+2.13σ+1.26σ
Singapore-1.01σ+1.44σ+2.43σ+2.54σ+1.17σ
Brazil-0.60σ+1.38σ+1.86σ+1.91σ+1.01σ
Thailand+0.25σ+0.23σ+2.09σ+1.36σ+0.93σ
Australia+0.32σ+0.73σ+1.33σ+1.37σ+0.89σ
France+0.28σ+0.78σ+1.53σ+0.83σ
Saudi Arabia+0.51σ+1.44σ+0.07σ+1.35σ+0.80σ
Switzerland+0.74σ+1.73σ-0.77σ+1.60σ+0.78σ
Indonesia+2.08σ+0.19σ+0.13σ+0.09σ+0.72σ
Poland+0.23σ-0.53σ+1.78σ+0.94σ+0.57σ
Israel-0.27σ+1.02σ-0.23σ+1.57σ+0.43σ
Russia-0.65σ+0.97σ-0.06σ+1.76σ+0.39σ
Belgium-0.49σ+0.65σ+0.76σ+0.25σ
Sweden+0.38σ-1.22σ+0.91σ-0.04σ
Germany+1.11σ-0.94σ-0.63σ-0.07σ
Austria+0.69σ-1.75σ+0.62σ-0.10σ
Argentina-0.91σ+1.08σ+0.18σ-0.71σ-0.10σ
United Kingdom-1.01σ-1.32σ+1.24σ+0.24σ-0.27σ
Spain-0.17σ-1.52σ+0.79σ-0.29σ
Italy-0.71σ-1.58σ+0.92σ-0.47σ
Netherlands+1.47σ-2.45σ-1.41σ-0.66σ
Turkey-0.13σ-0.86σ-1.12σ-0.66σ-0.66σ
Ireland-1.23σ-1.21σ-0.82σ-1.10σ

Reading a row: a large positive number means that stock sits far above where this economy normally carries it. Click any row to focus it above. Of 80 economies in the dataset, the 30 largest are shown.